A bleaker prospect than Afghanistan’s craggy mountains is hard to imagine; but whereas the country may be poor in resources it is rich -- as it has been since Alekhandars’ time -- in routes. As stated a few days before September 11 by the (official) U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Afghanistan's significance from an energy standpoint stems from its geographical position as a potential transit route for oil and natural gas exports from central Asia to the Arabian sea.” Kazakhstani oil and gas do not need to transit Afghanistan to reach Europe; for that the Caspian or Northern pipelines suffice. But Europe is a bit market. The big oil market in the 21st century is Asia and the major player in getting oil there is Unocal.
Experts expect the Asian oil market to double by 2010 whereas Western oil demand is expected to grow at between 0.5 and 1.2 per cent. The American Conference Board calculates that China’s economy grew 8% in 2002 and that her economy will eclipse that of the European Union between 2010 and 2020. Not without reason, Unocal has pursued plans for the construction of a northern gas pipeline through Kyrgyzstan to feed China, a southern line through Afghanistan tofeed India and an oil line to the Arabian Sea, through Afghanistan and Pakistan, to feed both.
John Maresca, vice president of international relations for Unocal states: “At Unocal, we believe the central factor in planning these pipelines should be the location of the future energy markets. Unocal foresees a pipeline which would become part of a regional system that will gather oil from existing pipeline infrastructure in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Russia.” The 1,040 mile-long 42-inch pipeline would extend south through Afghanistan to an export terminal on the Pakistan coast. The project would cost $2 billion, but the profits would be enormous.
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To complete these projects, Unocal began negotiating with the Taliban in 1995. The company's scheme required a single administration in Afghanistan, which would guarantee safe passage for its goods. It has been said by knowledgeable observers that American policy was written by Unocal and that the dream of securing a pipeline across Afghanistan was the main reason the US was so supportive of the Taliban. Doing the honors, Unocal invited Taliban leaders where they were royally entertained and wooed with offers of 15 cents for every thousand cubic feet of gas pumped through Taliban lands. Said a US diplomat (1997) “the Taliban will probably develop like the Saudis did. There will be Aramco (the former US oil consortium in Saudi Arabia) pipelines, an emir, no parliament and lots of Sharia law. We can live with that.”
However, the Clinton administration could not live with Ossama Bin Laden’s bombing of American embassies. Clinton withdrew support for the Taliban and Unocal had to shelve its pipeline dreams due to the “instability” of the situation. It’s chief consultant on the project Zalmay Khalilzad moved on to the Rand Corporation think tank.
Everything changed again after 9-11. With the Taliban gone, the situation has (at least officially) “stabilized” and Unocal is back in the running. On Dec. 31, Bush appointed Zalmay Kahililzad as his special envoy to Afghanistan. “This is a moment of opportunity for Afghanistan,” Khalizilzad said. Certainly for Unocal. Pakistan's Frontier Post reports that U.S. ambassador Wendy Chamberlain met in October with Pakistan's oil minister to discuss reviving the Unocal project. The Asia Times reports that many industry experts consider Unocal's revived Afghan adventure fatally flawed and expect the U.S. to ultimately wise up and pursue an Iran deal. As of the present, that does not seem to be the case.
Of course, changed events produce changed accents. According to Unocal, “We have worked very closely with the University of Nebraska at Omaha in developing a training program for Afghanistan which will be open to both men and women.” A penny for Unocal is a penny for women’s advancement!
©WCG, 2003
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